BMAD-METHOD/expansion-packs/bmad-trend-insights-platform/data/trend-validation-checklist.md

# Trend Validation Checklist

## Overview

This checklist helps you systematically validate whether a potential trend is real, sustainable, and represents a genuine opportunity. Use this before investing significant time or resources into pursuing a trend.

## Quick Assessment (5 Minutes)

Use this for initial filtering of potential trends:

### Minimum Viability Check

- [ ] Multiple independent people/sources mentioning this (not just one viral post)
- [ ] Trend has a clear name/description (not vague or ambiguous)
- [ ] You can find at least 3 different data sources confirming interest
- [ ] Interest appears to be growing, not declining
- [ ] There's evidence people are searching for this (Google Trends confirms)

**If ALL 5 are checked → Proceed to full validation**
**If fewer than 5 → Likely not worth pursuing right now**

---

## Full Validation (30-60 Minutes)

### Part 1: Demand Validation

#### Search Interest ✅

- [ ] Google Trends shows rising or sustained interest (not declining)
- [ ] Trend data spans at least 3 months (not just a spike)
- [ ] Related searches exist and are growing
- [ ] People are asking questions about it (autocomplete, "People also ask")
- [ ] Search volume is significant enough (not zero or "not enough data")

**Evidence to collect**:

- Screenshot of Google Trends graph
- List of related/rising searches
- Estimate of search volume level (high/medium/low)

---

#### Social Proof ✅

- [ ] Active conversation on at least 2 social platforms
- [ ] Hashtag or keyword shows growth (views, posts, engagement)
- [ ] Multiple types of content creators covering it (not just one niche)
- [ ] Comments/engagement indicate genuine interest (not bots)
- [ ] User-generated content exists (people creating, not just consuming)

**Evidence to collect**:

- TikTok: Hashtag view counts and growth
- Instagram: Post count and engagement rates
- Reddit: Discussion threads and upvotes
- YouTube: Video counts and view rates
- Twitter: Tweet volume and sentiment

**Red flags** 🚩:

- Only one platform talking about it
- All content from the same source/brand
- Comments feel astroturfed or fake
- No organic user-generated content

---

#### Community Formation ✅

- [ ] Dedicated communities exist (subreddits, Facebook groups, Discord servers)
- [ ] People asking questions and helping each other
- [ ] Resources being created (wikis, guides, recommendations)
- [ ] Recurring members/participants (not drive-by traffic)
- [ ] Organic growth in community size

**Evidence to collect**:

- Community names and sizes
- Engagement metrics (posts per day, comments)
- Examples of helpful resources being created

**Red flags** 🚩:

- No communities exist yet
- Communities are ghost towns
- Only promotional content, no genuine discussion

---

### Part 2: Commercial Validation

#### Products/Services Available ✅

- [ ] Products or services currently being sold
- [ ] Multiple sellers/brands (not just one)
- [ ] Price points established (market has agreed on value)
- [ ] Sales data or indicators available (reviews, ratings, rank)
- [ ] Inventory movement (products selling out or restocking)

**Evidence to collect**:

- Amazon: Best seller rank, review counts
- Etsy/Shopify: Number of shops selling
- Price range: Low to high
- Sales indicators (review velocity, stock status)

**Red flags** 🚩:

- No commercial products exist
- Only one brand with no competition
- Products available but zero reviews/sales
- Wildly inconsistent pricing (market confusion)

---

#### Willingness to Pay ✅

- [ ] Evidence of actual purchases (reviews, unboxings, testimonials)
- [ ] People asking "where to buy" in comments/forums
- [ ] Affiliate links or recommendations in content
- [ ] Price points seem sustainable (not loss-leaders)
- [ ] Multiple price tiers exist (budget to premium)

**Evidence to collect**:

- Customer reviews mentioning purchase
- "Where to buy" comments
- Affiliate content or recommendation posts
- Price analysis across tiers

**Red flags** 🚩:

- People interested but not buying
- All commercial products are failures/negative reviews
- Only free versions exist, no paid offerings
- "Where to buy" questions go unanswered

---

### Part 3: Sustainability Assessment

#### Trend Drivers ✅

- [ ] Clear underlying need being fulfilled (functional, emotional, social)
- [ ] Multiple drivers (not just one thing making it popular)
- [ ] Drivers are sustainable (not based on single event/person)
- [ ] Aligns with broader macro trends
- [ ] Makes logical sense (not purely random)

**Evaluate each driver**:

| Driver Type        | Present? | Sustainable? | Notes                            |
| ------------------ | -------- | ------------ | -------------------------------- |
| Functional need    | Y/N      | Y/N          | What problem does it solve?      |
| Emotional benefit  | Y/N      | Y/N          | How does it make people feel?    |
| Social/identity    | Y/N      | Y/N          | What does it signal?             |
| Novelty            | Y/N      | Y/N          | What's new about it?             |
| Technology enabler | Y/N      | Y/N          | What tech makes it possible?     |
| Cultural shift     | Y/N      | Y/N          | What value is changing?          |
| Economic factor    | Y/N      | Y/N          | What financial aspect drives it? |

**Strong trends have 3+ sustainable drivers**
**Fads typically have only 1 driver (often just novelty)**

---

#### Fad vs. Trend Analysis ✅

**Fad Indicators** (❌ Warning signs):

- [ ] Viral spike with no sustained interest
- [ ] Pure novelty with no practical benefit
- [ ] Celebrity/influencer-driven only (no organic adoption)
- [ ] Makes no logical sense (random)
- [ ] Similar past fads that quickly died
- [ ] No clear target audience problem solving
- [ ] Single channel/platform phenomenon

**Trend Indicators** (✅ Positive signs):

- [ ] Sustained growth over months
- [ ] Solves real problem or fulfills genuine need
- [ ] Multiple independent drivers
- [ ] Cross-platform and cross-demographic spread
- [ ] Related to broader macro trends
- [ ] Commercial ecosystem forming
- [ ] Organic community building

**Score**:

- Fad indicators: [X] / 7
- Trend indicators: [X] / 7

**If more fad indicators than trend indicators → High risk**

---

### Part 4: Opportunity Assessment

#### Market Characteristics ✅

- [ ] Market size is sufficient for your goals
- [ ] Market is growing (not shrinking or flat)
- [ ] Target audience is defined and reachable
- [ ] Multiple customer segments or use cases exist
- [ ] Market is not fully saturated yet

**Market Size Estimate**:

- Potential customers: [Estimate]
- Annual spending on category: [If available]
- Growth rate: [Percentage or direction]

---

#### Competitive Landscape ✅

- [ ] Competitive intensity is acceptable (not zero, not overwhelming)
- [ ] Existing solutions have gaps or weaknesses
- [ ] Room for differentiation exists
- [ ] Not dominated by major players with unlimited resources
- [ ] Barriers to entry are manageable

**Competition Analysis**:

| Factor                         | Assessment                        | Notes |
| ------------------------------ | --------------------------------- | ----- |
| Number of competitors          | Few / Moderate / Many             |       |
| Quality of solutions           | Poor / Mixed / Excellent          |       |
| Market concentration           | Fragmented / Balanced / Dominated |       |
| Innovation rate                | Slow / Moderate / Fast            |       |
| Your differentiation potential | High / Medium / Low               |       |

---

#### Timing Assessment ✅

- [ ] Trend is early enough (not oversaturated)
- [ ] Trend is mature enough (not too speculative)
- [ ] Window of opportunity is open
- [ ] No major negative catalysts on horizon
- [ ] Momentum is in your favor

**Trend Lifecycle Stage**:

- [ ] Innovators (2.5%) - Very early, high risk, high potential
- [ ] Early Adopters (13.5%) - Early but validated, good timing
- [ ] Early Majority (34%) - Growing rapidly, competitive
- [ ] Late Majority (34%) - Mature, saturated, late
- [ ] Laggards (16%) - Declining, very late

**Ideal entry: Early Adopters to Early Majority transition**

---

### Part 5: Execution Feasibility

#### Resource Requirements ✅

- [ ] You can afford the capital investment required
- [ ] You have or can acquire necessary skills
- [ ] Timeline fits your constraints
- [ ] You can access the target audience
- [ ] You have or can build distribution channels

**Resource Check**:

- Capital needed: [Amount or Low/Med/High]
- Key skills required: [List]
- Time to first revenue: [Estimate]
- Distribution channels: [Available channels]

---

#### Personal Fit ✅

- [ ] Topic interests you (important for sustained effort)
- [ ] Aligns with your skills or learning goals
- [ ] Fits your values and brand
- [ ] You understand the target audience
- [ ] You're willing to commit for required timeline

**Personal Alignment Score**: [X] / 5

---

### Part 6: Risk Assessment

#### Identified Risks ✅

**Market Risks**:

- [ ] Assess: Could this trend reverse or decline quickly?
- [ ] Assess: Is the market size actually too small?
- [ ] Assess: Are customer acquisition costs too high?

**Competitive Risks**:

- [ ] Assess: Could a major player easily enter?
- [ ] Assess: Is there a risk of being out-competed on price?
- [ ] Assess: Could your approach be easily copied?

**Execution Risks**:

- [ ] Assess: Is this harder to execute than it appears?
- [ ] Assess: Are there supply chain or operational challenges?
- [ ] Assess: Do you have all the skills/resources needed?

**External Risks**:

- [ ] Assess: Regulatory risks?
- [ ] Assess: Economic downturn impact?
- [ ] Assess: Platform/distribution risks?
- [ ] Assess: Cultural backlash potential?

**List all identified risks**:

1. [Risk]: [Likelihood: High/Med/Low] [Impact: High/Med/Low]
2. [Risk]: [Likelihood: High/Med/Low] [Impact: High/Med/Low]
3. [Risk]: [Likelihood: High/Med/Low] [Impact: High/Med/Low]

**High likelihood + High impact risks = Proceed with caution or pass**

---

## Validation Scoring

### Calculate Overall Scores

**Demand Score** (/15 possible):

- Search Interest: [X] / 5
- Social Proof: [X] / 5
- Community Formation: [X] / 5
- **Total**: [X] / 15

**Commercial Score** (/10 possible):

- Products Available: [X] / 5
- Willingness to Pay: [X] / 5
- **Total**: [X] / 10

**Sustainability Score** (/14 possible):

- Trend Drivers: [X] / 7
- Trend vs. Fad: [X] / 7
- **Total**: [X] / 14

**Opportunity Score** (/15 possible):

- Market Characteristics: [X] / 5
- Competitive Landscape: [X] / 5
- Timing Assessment: [X] / 5
- **Total**: [X] / 15

**Execution Score** (/10 possible):

- Resource Requirements: [X] / 5
- Personal Fit: [X] / 5
- **Total**: [X] / 10

**Overall Validation Score**: [X] / 64

---

## Decision Framework

### Score Interpretation

**50-64 points** (78%+): 🟢 **High Confidence - Pursue**

- Strong trend with clear opportunity
- Multiple validation signals
- Manageable risks
- Good personal fit
- **Action**: Move forward with confidence

**40-49 points** (62-77%): 🟡 **Medium Confidence - Validate Further**

- Promising trend with some gaps
- Some validation signals
- Moderate risks
- **Action**: Run small tests before full commitment

**30-39 points** (47-61%): 🟠 **Low Confidence - Proceed with Caution**

- Weak trend signals or poor fit
- Significant risks or gaps
- **Action**: Only pursue if you have unique advantages

**Below 30 points** (<47%): 🔴 **Do Not Pursue**

- Insufficient validation
- Too many red flags
- Better opportunities elsewhere
- **Action**: Pass and look for better trends

---

## Red Flags Summary

**Automatic disqualifiers** (even if score is high):

- [ ] Clear evidence of declining interest
- [ ] No commercial validation after 6+ months
- [ ] Dominated by major player with unlimited resources
- [ ] Conflicts with regulations or laws
- [ ] Requires resources you cannot access
- [ ] Purely dependent on single platform/person/event

**If any of these are checked, seriously reconsider pursuing**

---

## Final Validation Questions

Before committing, answer these honestly:

1. **Would you still pursue this if it took 2x longer than expected?** Y/N
2. **If this trend declined 50%, would there still be an opportunity?** Y/N
3. **Can you reach your target customers cost-effectively?** Y/N
4. **Do you have or can you build a defensible position?** Y/N
5. **Is this aligned with where you want to be in 3 years?** Y/N

**If 4-5 Yes**: Green light ✅
**If 2-3 Yes**: Proceed cautiously ⚠️
**If 0-1 Yes**: Probably pass ❌

---

## Documentation Template

Use this to record your validation results:

```
TREND VALIDATION REPORT
-----------------------
Trend Name: [Name]
Validation Date: [Date]
Validated By: [Your name]

SCORES:
- Demand: [X]/15
- Commercial: [X]/10
- Sustainability: [X]/14
- Opportunity: [X]/15
- Execution: [X]/10
- TOTAL: [X]/64 ([X]%)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: [High/Medium/Low]

KEY FINDINGS:
- Strength 1: [Finding]
- Strength 2: [Finding]
- Strength 3: [Finding]
- Risk 1: [Finding]
- Risk 2: [Finding]

DECISION: [Pursue / Test / Pass]

RATIONALE:
[2-3 sentences explaining your decision]

NEXT STEPS:
1. [Action]
2. [Action]
3. [Action]

REVIEW DATE: [When to re-assess]
```

---

## Validation Workflow

**Step 1**: Quick Assessment (5 min)

- If fails → Pass
- If passes → Continue

**Step 2**: Full Validation (60 min)

- Complete all sections
- Calculate scores
- Document findings

**Step 3**: Decision

- Review score and flags
- Answer final questions
- Make go/no-go decision

**Step 4**: Action

- If pursuing → Create action plan
- If testing → Design small experiment
- If passing → Document for future reference

**Step 5**: Review

- Set reminder to re-validate in 30-90 days
- Track if predictions were accurate
- Refine your validation process

---

## Remember

- **Validation is not procrastination** - it's smart risk management
- **No trend is perfect** - you're looking for "good enough," not flawless
- **Trust your gut** - if something feels off despite good scores, dig deeper
- **Document everything** - future you will thank present you
- **Update regularly** - trends change, re-validate periodically

The best time to catch a trend is when validation is strong but competition is still light. Use this checklist to find that sweet spot! 🎯