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Trend Validation Checklist

Overview

This checklist helps you systematically validate whether a potential trend is real, sustainable, and represents a genuine opportunity. Use this before investing significant time or resources into pursuing a trend.

Quick Assessment (5 Minutes)

Use this for initial filtering of potential trends:

Minimum Viability Check

  • Multiple independent people/sources mentioning this (not just one viral post)
  • Trend has a clear name/description (not vague or ambiguous)
  • You can find at least 3 different data sources confirming interest
  • Interest appears to be growing, not declining
  • There's evidence people are searching for this (Google Trends confirms)

If ALL 5 are checked → Proceed to full validation If fewer than 5 → Likely not worth pursuing right now

Full Validation (30-60 Minutes)

Part 1: Demand Validation

Search Interest ✅

  • Google Trends shows rising or sustained interest (not declining)
  • Trend data spans at least 3 months (not just a spike)
  • Related searches exist and are growing
  • People are asking questions about it (autocomplete, "People also ask")
  • Search volume is significant enough (not zero or "not enough data")

Evidence to collect:

  • Screenshot of Google Trends graph
  • List of related/rising searches
  • Estimate of search volume level (high/medium/low)

Social Proof ✅

  • Active conversation on at least 2 social platforms
  • Hashtag or keyword shows growth (views, posts, engagement)
  • Multiple types of content creators covering it (not just one niche)
  • Comments/engagement indicate genuine interest (not bots)
  • User-generated content exists (people creating, not just consuming)

Evidence to collect:

  • TikTok: Hashtag view counts and growth
  • Instagram: Post count and engagement rates
  • Reddit: Discussion threads and upvotes
  • YouTube: Video counts and view rates
  • Twitter: Tweet volume and sentiment

Red flags 🚩:

  • Only one platform talking about it
  • All content from the same source/brand
  • Comments feel astroturfed or fake
  • No organic user-generated content

Community Formation ✅

  • Dedicated communities exist (subreddits, Facebook groups, Discord servers)
  • People asking questions and helping each other
  • Resources being created (wikis, guides, recommendations)
  • Recurring members/participants (not drive-by traffic)
  • Organic growth in community size

Evidence to collect:

  • Community names and sizes
  • Engagement metrics (posts per day, comments)
  • Examples of helpful resources being created

Red flags 🚩:

  • No communities exist yet
  • Communities are ghost towns
  • Only promotional content, no genuine discussion

Part 2: Commercial Validation

Products/Services Available ✅

  • Products or services currently being sold
  • Multiple sellers/brands (not just one)
  • Price points established (market has agreed on value)
  • Sales data or indicators available (reviews, ratings, rank)
  • Inventory movement (products selling out or restocking)

Evidence to collect:

  • Amazon: Best seller rank, review counts
  • Etsy/Shopify: Number of shops selling
  • Price range: Low to high
  • Sales indicators (review velocity, stock status)

Red flags 🚩:

  • No commercial products exist
  • Only one brand with no competition
  • Products available but zero reviews/sales
  • Wildly inconsistent pricing (market confusion)

Willingness to Pay ✅

  • Evidence of actual purchases (reviews, unboxings, testimonials)
  • People asking "where to buy" in comments/forums
  • Affiliate links or recommendations in content
  • Price points seem sustainable (not loss-leaders)
  • Multiple price tiers exist (budget to premium)

Evidence to collect:

  • Customer reviews mentioning purchase
  • "Where to buy" comments
  • Affiliate content or recommendation posts
  • Price analysis across tiers

Red flags 🚩:

  • People interested but not buying
  • All commercial products are failures/negative reviews
  • Only free versions exist, no paid offerings
  • "Where to buy" questions go unanswered

Part 3: Sustainability Assessment

Trend Drivers ✅

  • Clear underlying need being fulfilled (functional, emotional, social)
  • Multiple drivers (not just one thing making it popular)
  • Drivers are sustainable (not based on single event/person)
  • Aligns with broader macro trends
  • Makes logical sense (not purely random)

Evaluate each driver:

Driver Type Present? Sustainable? Notes
Functional need Y/N Y/N What problem does it solve?
Emotional benefit Y/N Y/N How does it make people feel?
Social/identity Y/N Y/N What does it signal?
Novelty Y/N Y/N What's new about it?
Technology enabler Y/N Y/N What tech makes it possible?
Cultural shift Y/N Y/N What value is changing?
Economic factor Y/N Y/N What financial aspect drives it?

Strong trends have 3+ sustainable drivers Fads typically have only 1 driver (often just novelty)

Fad vs. Trend Analysis ✅

Fad Indicators (❌ Warning signs):

  • Viral spike with no sustained interest
  • Pure novelty with no practical benefit
  • Celebrity/influencer-driven only (no organic adoption)
  • Makes no logical sense (random)
  • Similar past fads that quickly died
  • No clear target audience problem solving
  • Single channel/platform phenomenon

Trend Indicators (✅ Positive signs):

  • Sustained growth over months
  • Solves real problem or fulfills genuine need
  • Multiple independent drivers
  • Cross-platform and cross-demographic spread
  • Related to broader macro trends
  • Commercial ecosystem forming
  • Organic community building

Score:

  • Fad indicators: / 7
  • Trend indicators: / 7

If more fad indicators than trend indicators → High risk

Part 4: Opportunity Assessment

Market Characteristics ✅

  • Market size is sufficient for your goals
  • Market is growing (not shrinking or flat)
  • Target audience is defined and reachable
  • Multiple customer segments or use cases exist
  • Market is not fully saturated yet

Market Size Estimate:

  • Potential customers: [Estimate]
  • Annual spending on category: [If available]
  • Growth rate: [Percentage or direction]

Competitive Landscape ✅

  • Competitive intensity is acceptable (not zero, not overwhelming)
  • Existing solutions have gaps or weaknesses
  • Room for differentiation exists
  • Not dominated by major players with unlimited resources
  • Barriers to entry are manageable

Competition Analysis:

Factor Assessment Notes
Number of competitors Few / Moderate / Many
Quality of solutions Poor / Mixed / Excellent
Market concentration Fragmented / Balanced / Dominated
Innovation rate Slow / Moderate / Fast
Your differentiation potential High / Medium / Low

Timing Assessment ✅

  • Trend is early enough (not oversaturated)
  • Trend is mature enough (not too speculative)
  • Window of opportunity is open
  • No major negative catalysts on horizon
  • Momentum is in your favor

Trend Lifecycle Stage:

  • Innovators (2.5%) - Very early, high risk, high potential
  • Early Adopters (13.5%) - Early but validated, good timing
  • Early Majority (34%) - Growing rapidly, competitive
  • Late Majority (34%) - Mature, saturated, late
  • Laggards (16%) - Declining, very late

Ideal entry: Early Adopters to Early Majority transition

Part 5: Execution Feasibility

Resource Requirements ✅

  • You can afford the capital investment required
  • You have or can acquire necessary skills
  • Timeline fits your constraints
  • You can access the target audience
  • You have or can build distribution channels

Resource Check:

  • Capital needed: [Amount or Low/Med/High]
  • Key skills required: [List]
  • Time to first revenue: [Estimate]
  • Distribution channels: [Available channels]

Personal Fit ✅

  • Topic interests you (important for sustained effort)
  • Aligns with your skills or learning goals
  • Fits your values and brand
  • You understand the target audience
  • You're willing to commit for required timeline

Personal Alignment Score: [X] / 5

Part 6: Risk Assessment

Identified Risks ✅

Market Risks:

  • Assess: Could this trend reverse or decline quickly?
  • Assess: Is the market size actually too small?
  • Assess: Are customer acquisition costs too high?

Competitive Risks:

  • Assess: Could a major player easily enter?
  • Assess: Is there a risk of being out-competed on price?
  • Assess: Could your approach be easily copied?

Execution Risks:

  • Assess: Is this harder to execute than it appears?
  • Assess: Are there supply chain or operational challenges?
  • Assess: Do you have all the skills/resources needed?

External Risks:

  • Assess: Regulatory risks?
  • Assess: Economic downturn impact?
  • Assess: Platform/distribution risks?
  • Assess: Cultural backlash potential?

List all identified risks:

  1. [Risk]: [Likelihood: High/Med/Low] [Impact: High/Med/Low]
  2. [Risk]: [Likelihood: High/Med/Low] [Impact: High/Med/Low]
  3. [Risk]: [Likelihood: High/Med/Low] [Impact: High/Med/Low]

High likelihood + High impact risks = Proceed with caution or pass

Validation Scoring

Calculate Overall Scores

Demand Score (/15 possible):

  • Search Interest: / 5
  • Social Proof: / 5
  • Community Formation: / 5
  • Total: / 15

Commercial Score (/10 possible):

  • Products Available: / 5
  • Willingness to Pay: / 5
  • Total: / 10

Sustainability Score (/14 possible):

  • Trend Drivers: / 7
  • Trend vs. Fad: / 7
  • Total: / 14

Opportunity Score (/15 possible):

  • Market Characteristics: / 5
  • Competitive Landscape: / 5
  • Timing Assessment: / 5
  • Total: / 15

Execution Score (/10 possible):

  • Resource Requirements: / 5
  • Personal Fit: / 5
  • Total: / 10

Overall Validation Score: [X] / 64

Decision Framework

Score Interpretation

50-64 points (78%+): 🟢 High Confidence - Pursue

  • Strong trend with clear opportunity
  • Multiple validation signals
  • Manageable risks
  • Good personal fit
  • Action: Move forward with confidence

40-49 points (62-77%): 🟡 Medium Confidence - Validate Further

  • Promising trend with some gaps
  • Some validation signals
  • Moderate risks
  • Action: Run small tests before full commitment

30-39 points (47-61%): 🟠 Low Confidence - Proceed with Caution

  • Weak trend signals or poor fit
  • Significant risks or gaps
  • Action: Only pursue if you have unique advantages

Below 30 points (<47%): 🔴 Do Not Pursue

  • Insufficient validation
  • Too many red flags
  • Better opportunities elsewhere
  • Action: Pass and look for better trends

Red Flags Summary

Automatic disqualifiers (even if score is high):

  • Clear evidence of declining interest
  • No commercial validation after 6+ months
  • Dominated by major player with unlimited resources
  • Conflicts with regulations or laws
  • Requires resources you cannot access
  • Purely dependent on single platform/person/event

If any of these are checked, seriously reconsider pursuing

Final Validation Questions

Before committing, answer these honestly:

  1. Would you still pursue this if it took 2x longer than expected? Y/N
  2. If this trend declined 50%, would there still be an opportunity? Y/N
  3. Can you reach your target customers cost-effectively? Y/N
  4. Do you have or can you build a defensible position? Y/N
  5. Is this aligned with where you want to be in 3 years? Y/N

If 4-5 Yes: Green light ✅ If 2-3 Yes: Proceed cautiously ⚠️ If 0-1 Yes: Probably pass ❌

Documentation Template

Use this to record your validation results:

TREND VALIDATION REPORT
-----------------------
Trend Name: [Name]
Validation Date: [Date]
Validated By: [Your name]

SCORES:
- Demand: [X]/15
- Commercial: [X]/10
- Sustainability: [X]/14
- Opportunity: [X]/15
- Execution: [X]/10
- TOTAL: [X]/64 ([X]%)

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: [High/Medium/Low]

KEY FINDINGS:
- Strength 1: [Finding]
- Strength 2: [Finding]
- Strength 3: [Finding]
- Risk 1: [Finding]
- Risk 2: [Finding]

DECISION: [Pursue / Test / Pass]

RATIONALE:
[2-3 sentences explaining your decision]

NEXT STEPS:
1. [Action]
2. [Action]
3. [Action]

REVIEW DATE: [When to re-assess]

Validation Workflow

Step 1: Quick Assessment (5 min)

  • If fails → Pass
  • If passes → Continue

Step 2: Full Validation (60 min)

  • Complete all sections
  • Calculate scores
  • Document findings

Step 3: Decision

  • Review score and flags
  • Answer final questions
  • Make go/no-go decision

Step 4: Action

  • If pursuing → Create action plan
  • If testing → Design small experiment
  • If passing → Document for future reference

Step 5: Review

  • Set reminder to re-validate in 30-90 days
  • Track if predictions were accurate
  • Refine your validation process

Remember

  • Validation is not procrastination - it's smart risk management
  • No trend is perfect - you're looking for "good enough," not flawless
  • Trust your gut - if something feels off despite good scores, dig deeper
  • Document everything - future you will thank present you
  • Update regularly - trends change, re-validate periodically

The best time to catch a trend is when validation is strong but competition is still light. Use this checklist to find that sweet spot! 🎯