BMAD-METHOD/expansion-packs/bmad-trend-insights-platform/tasks/compare-trends.md

# Task: Compare Trends

## Objective

Compare multiple trends side-by-side to help users make informed decisions about which opportunities to pursue, which have more potential, and how they differ strategically.

## Instructions

### Step 1: Identify Trends to Compare

Clarify with the user:

- **Trends**: Which 2-5 trends should we compare? (Get specific names)
- **Comparison goal**: What decision are they trying to make?
  - Which to pursue as a business opportunity?
  - Which to focus on for content creation?
  - Which has better timing/momentum?
  - Which fits their skills/resources better?
- **Decision criteria**: What matters most? (market size, competition, timing, barriers to entry, passion/interest)

### Step 2: Research Each Trend

For each trend being compared, gather:

#### Search & Interest Metrics

- Current search volume (High/Medium/Low)
- Trend trajectory (Rising %, Stable, Declining)
- Geographic distribution
- Seasonality patterns
- Related search volume

#### Market Characteristics

- Market size/revenue potential
- Growth rate
- Stage of adoption (Emerging/Growth/Mature)
- Target audience size
- Price points and margins

#### Competitive Dynamics

- Number of key players
- Market concentration (few dominants vs. fragmented)
- Barriers to entry (Low/Medium/High)
- Differentiation opportunities
- Saturation level

#### Operational Factors

- Complexity to enter
- Capital requirements
- Time to first revenue
- Skill/expertise needed
- Supply chain considerations

### Step 3: Create Comparison Framework

Build a structured comparison across key dimensions:

```markdown
# Trend Comparison Analysis

**Trends Being Compared**: [Trend 1] vs [Trend 2] vs [Trend 3]
**Comparison Date**: [Today's date]
**Decision Context**: [What they're trying to decide]

---

## 📊 Quick Comparison Matrix

| Criteria              | [Trend 1]    | [Trend 2] | [Trend 3]     |
| --------------------- | ------------ | --------- | ------------- |
| **Search Interest**   | [Rising 45%] | [Stable]  | [Rising 120%] |
| **Market Size**       | [$500M]      | [$2B]     | [$50M]        |
| **Competition**       | 🟢 Low       | 🔴 High   | 🟡 Medium     |
| **Barriers to Entry** | 🟡 Medium    | 🟢 Low    | 🔴 High       |
| **Stage**             | Growth       | Mature    | Emerging      |
| **Opportunity Score** | 7/10         | 5/10      | 8/10          |

---

## 🔍 Detailed Trend Profiles

### [Trend 1 Name]

**What it is**: [1-2 sentence description]

**Strengths** ✅:

- [Strength 1]
- [Strength 2]
- [Strength 3]

**Weaknesses** ⚠️:

- [Weakness 1]
- [Weakness 2]

**Best For**: [Type of person/business this trend suits]

**Key Insight**: [Most important takeaway about this trend]

---

### [Trend 2 Name]

[... Repeat structure ...]

---

### [Trend 3 Name]

[... Repeat structure ...]

---

## ⚖️ Head-to-Head Analysis

### Market Opportunity

**Largest Market**: [Trend X] at [$amount]

- [Reasoning why this market is bigger]

**Fastest Growing**: [Trend Y] at [X% growth]

- [What's driving this growth]

**Winner**: [Trend name]

- **Why**: [Reasoning - balance size with growth potential]

### Competition & Entry Barriers

**Least Crowded**: [Trend X]

- [Evidence of lower competition]

**Easiest to Enter**: [Trend Y]

- [Why barriers are lower]

**Winner**: [Trend name]

- **Why**: [Reasoning - balance of competition and barriers]

### Timing & Momentum

**Strongest Momentum**: [Trend X] with [X% increase]

- [Evidence of momentum]

**Best Timing Window**: [Trend Y]

- [Why now is the right time]

**Winner**: [Trend name]

- **Why**: [Reasoning on timing advantage]

### Sustainability & Longevity

**Most Sustainable**: [Trend X]

- [Evidence of lasting power - not a fad]

**Biggest Fad Risk**: [Trend Y]

- [Warning signs of potential flash-in-pan]

**Winner**: [Trend name]

- **Why**: [Reasoning on staying power]

### Target Audience

**Largest Audience**: [Trend X]

- [Size and characteristics]

**Most Engaged Audience**: [Trend Y]

- [Evidence of engagement and loyalty]

**Winner**: [Trend name]

- **Why**: [Reasoning - quality vs. quantity]

### Monetization Potential

**Highest Price Points**: [Trend X] at [$range]

- [What enables premium pricing]

**Easiest to Monetize**: [Trend Y]

- [Clear, proven business models]

**Winner**: [Trend name]

- **Why**: [Reasoning on profit potential]

---

## 🎯 Recommendation & Decision Framework

### Overall Winner: [Trend Name] 🏆

**Why we recommend this trend**:

1. [Primary reason]
2. [Secondary reason]
3. [Supporting reason]

**Ideal for**:

- [Type of entrepreneur/business]
- [Skill set or resources needed]
- [Risk tolerance level]

### Runner-Up: [Trend Name] 🥈

**When to choose this instead**:

- [Circumstance 1]
- [Circumstance 2]

### Decision Matrix by Goal

**If your goal is...**

| Goal                    | Best Choice | Why                                 |
| ----------------------- | ----------- | ----------------------------------- |
| **Fast revenue**        | [Trend X]   | [Reason]                            |
| **Largest upside**      | [Trend Y]   | [Reason]                            |
| **Lowest risk**         | [Trend Z]   | [Reason]                            |
| **Long-term building**  | [Trend X]   | [Reason]                            |
| **Quick test/validate** | [Trend Y]   | [Reason]                            |
| **Passion project**     | [Depends]   | [Consider alignment with interests] |

---

## 💡 Strategic Insights

### Key Tradeoffs

1. **[Tradeoff]**: [Explanation]
   - Choose [Trend X] if you prioritize [factor]
   - Choose [Trend Y] if you prioritize [other factor]

2. **[Tradeoff]**: [Explanation]
   - [Decision guidance]

### Synergies & Combinations

**Can you pursue multiple?**

- **[Trend X + Trend Y]**: [How they complement each other]
- **Sequential approach**: Start with [Trend], then expand to [Trend]

### Wild Card Factors

- **[Trend X]**: [Unpredictable factor that could change everything]
- **[Trend Y]**: [Unexpected advantage or risk]

---

## 📋 Comparison Summary

### At a Glance
```

[Trend 1]: Best for [use case] | Risk: [Low/Med/High] | Timeline: [Fast/Med/Long]
[Trend 2]: Best for [use case] | Risk: [Low/Med/High] | Timeline: [Fast/Med/Long]
[Trend 3]: Best for [use case] | Risk: [Low/Med/High] | Timeline: [Fast/Med/Long]

```

### Final Scores

| Trend | Market | Competition | Timing | Sustainability | Overall |
|-------|--------|-------------|--------|----------------|---------|
| [Trend 1] | X/10 | X/10 | X/10 | X/10 | **X/10** |
| [Trend 2] | X/10 | X/10 | X/10 | X/10 | **X/10** |
| [Trend 3] | X/10 | X/10 | X/10 | X/10 | **X/10** |

---

## 🚀 Next Steps

**If choosing [Winning Trend]**:
1. [First action to take]
2. [Second action to take]
3. [Third action to take]

**Want more depth?**
- Use `/analyze-trend [name]` for deep-dive on your chosen trend
- Use `/trend-forecast [name]` to project where it's headed
- Use `/niche-explorer [name]` to find specific opportunities within it

---

**Analysis Date**: [Today's date]
**Trends Compared**: [Number]
**Recommendation Confidence**: [High/Medium/Low]

*Remember: The "best" trend depends on your specific context, skills, resources, and goals. Use this analysis as input, not gospel.* 🎯
```

### Step 4: Provide Context-Specific Guidance

Based on what you learned about their goals and situation:

**For different user types**:

- **Entrepreneur**: Focus on market size, competition, monetization
- **Content Creator**: Focus on search volume, content angles, sustainability
- **Investor**: Focus on market growth, competitive dynamics, timing
- **Hobbyist**: Focus on passion alignment, community, accessibility

### Step 5: Offer Follow-Up

Ask if they'd like to:

- Deep-dive on the winning trend (`/analyze-trend`)
- Forecast where the trends are headed (`/trend-forecast`)
- Explore niche opportunities within the winner (`/niche-explorer`)
- Compare different trends if they want a second opinion

## Success Criteria

✅ Clear, structured comparison across key dimensions
✅ Data-backed assessment for each criterion
✅ Head-to-head analysis highlighting key differences
✅ Clear recommendation with reasoning
✅ Context-specific guidance for decision-making
✅ Honest about tradeoffs and risks
✅ Actionable next steps

## Tips for Great Comparisons

- **Be objective**: Don't favor one trend without evidence
- **Show tradeoffs**: There's rarely a perfect winner across all dimensions
- **Provide context**: Help them understand WHEN each trend is the best choice
- **Use visuals**: Tables and matrices make comparison scannable
- **Quantify**: Use numbers and scores when possible
- **Think holistically**: Consider all aspects, not just market size

## Common Pitfalls

❌ Comparing apples to oranges (trends at different stages)
❌ Focusing only on market size, ignoring other factors
❌ Declaring a winner without explaining tradeoffs
❌ Not considering user's specific context and goals
❌ Ignoring timing - early vs. late in trend lifecycle
❌ Being too definitive - acknowledge uncertainty

---

**Remember**: The best trend for someone else might not be the best trend for you. This comparison helps identify which opportunity aligns with your unique strengths, resources, and goals. 🎯