BMAD-METHOD/expansion-packs/bmad-trend-insights-platform/tasks/analyze-single-trend.md

348 lines
9.1 KiB
Markdown

# Task: Analyze Single Trend
## Objective
Conduct a comprehensive deep-dive analysis of a specific trend to understand what it is, why it's trending, who wants it, and how to capitalize on it.
## Instructions
### Step 1: Identify the Trend
Confirm with the user:
- **Trend name/topic**: What specific trend should we analyze?
- **Analysis goals**: What do they want to know? (market opportunity, content strategy, product development, investment decision)
If the user provides a vague topic, help them narrow it down to a specific trend.
### Step 2: Research Foundation
Gather comprehensive data using web search:
#### A. What is it?
- **Definition**: Clear explanation of what this trend is
- **Origin**: Where/when did it start?
- **Category**: What broader category does it belong to?
- **Variations**: Different forms or versions of this trend
#### B. Search & Interest Data
- **Current search volume**: How many people are searching?
- **Trend trajectory**: Rising, stable, declining, seasonal?
- **Geographic distribution**: Where is it most popular?
- **Related searches**: What else are people looking for?
- **Search queries**: Actual questions people are asking
#### C. Social & Cultural Context
- **Social media presence**: Which platforms? What's the conversation?
- **Influencers/advocates**: Who's driving this trend?
- **Media coverage**: News articles, publications covering it
- **Community**: Are there dedicated communities/forums?
### Step 3: Understand the "Why"
This is critical - dig deep to understand:
1. **What need does it fulfill?**
- Functional benefit (solves a problem)
- Emotional benefit (makes them feel good)
- Social benefit (status, belonging, identity)
- Novelty benefit (new, exciting, different)
2. **Why now?**
- What changed to make this trend emerge now?
- Technology enablers?
- Cultural shifts?
- Influencer/celebrity endorsement?
- Pandemic effects?
- Economic factors?
3. **Target audience**
- Demographics: age, gender, income, location
- Psychographics: values, interests, lifestyle
- Early adopters vs. mainstream appeal
### Step 4: Market Analysis
Assess the commercial landscape:
#### A. Market Size & Opportunity
- **Market size**: How big is the opportunity?
- **Growth rate**: How fast is it growing?
- **Market maturity**: Early stage, growth, mature, declining?
#### B. Competitive Landscape
- **Key players**: Who's dominating this space?
- **Product availability**: Easy to find or scarce?
- **Price points**: What are people paying?
- **Gaps**: What's missing? Underserved segments?
#### C. Business Models
- **How are businesses monetizing this trend?**
- Direct sales, subscription, marketplace, affiliate, content?
- What's working? What's not?
### Step 5: Trend Assessment
Evaluate sustainability and opportunity:
1. **Fad vs. Trend?**
- ❌ Fad indicators: Viral spike, no practical benefit, celebrity-driven only
- ✅ Trend indicators: Sustained growth, solves real need, multiple drivers
2. **Opportunity Score** (Rate 1-10)
- Market size: How big is the opportunity?
- Competition: How crowded is the space?
- Barriers to entry: How easy to participate?
- Timing: Are we early or late?
- Alignment: Does it fit broader macro trends?
3. **Risk Factors**
- What could cause this trend to collapse?
- Regulatory risks?
- Supply chain issues?
- Changing preferences?
### Step 6: Strategic Recommendations
Provide actionable insights:
#### For Entrepreneurs/Businesses:
- **Opportunities**: Specific ways to capitalize
- **Positioning**: How to differentiate
- **Target audience**: Who to focus on
- **Go-to-market**: How to reach them
- **Quick wins**: Fast moves to test the opportunity
#### For Content Creators:
- **Content angles**: What to create about this trend
- **Platforms**: Where to publish
- **SEO opportunities**: Keywords to target
- **Audience building**: How to attract interest
#### For Investors:
- **Investment thesis**: Why invest (or not)?
- **Key players**: Companies to watch
- **Timing**: Now or wait?
### Step 7: Present Analysis
Use the `trend-analysis-tmpl` template structure:
```markdown
# Deep Trend Analysis: [Trend Name]
## 📋 Executive Summary
**Trend**: [Name]
**Category**: [Category]
**Status**: [🔥 Rising / ⚡ Hot / 📊 Stable / 📉 Declining]
**Opportunity Score**: [X/10]
[2-3 sentence summary of the trend and key takeaway]
## 🔍 What Is It?
[Clear description of the trend]
**Origin**: [Where it started and when]
**Key Characteristics**:
- [Characteristic 1]
- [Characteristic 2]
- [Characteristic 3]
## 📈 Trend Data & Metrics
### Search Interest
- **Current Volume**: [High/Medium/Low]
- **Trajectory**: [Rising X% / Stable / Declining]
- **Geographic Hotspots**: [Regions]
- **Peak Periods**: [Seasonal patterns if any]
### Top Related Searches
1. [Related search 1]
2. [Related search 2]
3. [Related search 3]
### Social Signals
- **Primary Platforms**: [TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, etc.]
- **Hashtag Performance**: [Relevant hashtags and reach]
- **Influencer Activity**: [Notable advocates]
## 💡 Why It's Trending
### Primary Drivers
1. **[Driver 1]**: [Explanation]
2. **[Driver 2]**: [Explanation]
3. **[Driver 3]**: [Explanation]
### Needs Fulfilled
- **Functional**: [What problem it solves]
- **Emotional**: [How it makes people feel]
- **Social**: [Identity/status/belonging aspects]
### Target Audience
- **Demographics**: [Age, gender, location, income]
- **Psychographics**: [Values, interests, lifestyle]
- **Pain Points**: [What they're struggling with]
## 🏪 Market Landscape
### Market Size
- **Current Market**: [Size/revenue if available]
- **Growth Rate**: [Annual growth percentage]
- **Projections**: [Future outlook]
### Key Players
1. **[Company/Brand 1]**: [What they offer, positioning]
2. **[Company/Brand 2]**: [What they offer, positioning]
3. **[Company/Brand 3]**: [What they offer, positioning]
### Price Points
- Budget: [$X - $Y]
- Mid-range: [$X - $Y]
- Premium: [$X - $Y]
### Market Gaps
- [Gap 1]: [Underserved segment or need]
- [Gap 2]: [Another opportunity]
## 🎯 Trend Assessment
### Sustainability Analysis
**Verdict**: [✅ Sustainable Trend / ⚠️ Monitor Closely / ❌ Likely Fad]
**Evidence**:
- ✅ [Positive indicator]
- ✅ [Positive indicator]
- ⚠️ [Risk factor]
- ❌ [Concern]
### Opportunity Score: [X/10]
- **Market Size** [X/10]: [Reasoning]
- **Competition** [X/10]: [Reasoning]
- **Barriers** [X/10]: [Reasoning]
- **Timing** [X/10]: [Reasoning]
- **Alignment** [X/10]: [Reasoning]
## 🚀 Strategic Recommendations
### For Entrepreneurs
**Opportunity**: [Specific business opportunity]
**Approach**:
1. [Recommendation 1]
2. [Recommendation 2]
3. [Recommendation 3]
**Quick Test**: [Fast, low-cost way to validate opportunity]
### For Content Creators
**Content Strategy**:
- **Angles**: [Content ideas]
- **Platforms**: [Where to focus]
- **Keywords**: [SEO opportunities]
### For Investors
**Investment Thesis**: [Why invest or pass]
**Companies to Watch**: [Key players]
**Timing**: [Now, soon, or wait]
## ⚠️ Risk Factors
1. **[Risk 1]**: [Description and likelihood]
2. **[Risk 2]**: [Description and likelihood]
3. **[Risk 3]**: [Description and likelihood]
## 🔮 Future Outlook
**12-Month Projection**: [Where this trend is headed]
**Scenarios**:
- **Best Case**: [Optimistic scenario]
- **Most Likely**: [Realistic scenario]
- **Worst Case**: [Pessimistic scenario]
## 📚 Sources & Data
- [Source 1]
- [Source 2]
- [Source 3]
---
**Analysis Date**: [Today's date]
**Next Review**: [Suggested follow-up timing]
_Want to compare this to other trends? Use `/compare-trends`_
_Want to forecast where this is headed? Use `/trend-forecast`_
```
### Step 8: Offer Next Actions
Ask if they'd like to:
- Compare this trend to alternatives (`/compare-trends`)
- Forecast future trajectory (`/trend-forecast`)
- Explore niche sub-opportunities (`/niche-explorer`)
- Discover related trends (`/discover-trends`)
## Success Criteria
✅ Comprehensive understanding of what the trend is
✅ Data-backed analysis of search volume and interest
✅ Clear explanation of WHY it's trending
✅ Market landscape and competitive analysis
✅ Sustainability assessment (fad vs. trend)
✅ Actionable strategic recommendations
✅ Risk factors identified
✅ Future outlook provided
## Tips for Excellent Analysis
- **Go beyond surface level**: Don't just describe, explain WHY
- **Use multiple sources**: Cross-reference data points
- **Think like different stakeholders**: Entrepreneur, creator, investor
- **Be honest about risks**: Don't just sell the opportunity
- **Quantify when possible**: Numbers beat vague descriptions
- **Look for the non-obvious**: The best insights aren't obvious
## Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Confusing correlation with causation
❌ Relying on a single data source
❌ Ignoring negative signals or risks
❌ Making recommendations without understanding context
❌ Treating all trends as equal opportunities
---
**Remember**: A great trend analysis doesn't just tell you WHAT is trending - it helps you understand WHY it matters and HOW to take advantage of it. That's the Internet Pipes advantage! 🎯